This is going to be a somewhat depressing post. But I don’t really care. Because I can’t really afford a psychologist. Nor do I think many of my friends understand. So, the best I can do for myself is this. Write it out.
I should’ve known. I thought I knew. But obviously not. I’ve been through days like this before, but today stung extra for some reason.
What I’m getting at is this: Today, in the stock market, I lost more money in my stocks than I’ll make in a month at work. And I’ve lost more in previous days. Intraday once I took a twenty one thousand dollar swing down. Spelled out for effect. But I didn’t sweat it.
And I’ve still got way more than I need. I’m still up a ridiculous amount. Beyond my wildest dreams. But for the first time I feel like I made a real mistake. I bet against the market and it whipped me. Two put options on Lehman and Bear Stearns. Two companies I thought were going to report terrible earnings because of the sub-prime mess and then get kicked again with either no rate cut, or a rate cut that wasn’t enough.
I saw it coming the whole way. These financials were too big to let the puny sub-prime mess really slow them down. I was thinking way too US based and not enough globally. Regardless, Lehman reported better than expected (bad instead of terrible) and then the Fed continued to cut rates 5 basis points. The double whammy. The stocks shot up and I was trying my best to bandage the bleeding.
And the thing is, when you’re wrong like this, you see immediate results. That’s the problem with the two things regarding money I’ve come to love the most…poker and the stock market. Maybe I should stop playing both at the same time. Maybe that’s too much for me?
Make a bad read against another player on the tables? Say goodbye to your entire chip stack. Make a bet against the market and it shoots up 330 points? Same story.
But the key in both is to not get down. The key in both is to play the game with high quality moves and in the long term be a winner. Even a 51%/49% edge is large enough. However, there are days like today when it seems like everything is moving against you. A poker player that plays “on tilt” loses their mind and gets destructive. I felt a bit of tilt today and started buying things I shouldn’t have which created further losses. Fortunately in poker I’m not betting the house. Unfortunately in the market, I am.
So I was thinking tonight in the shower (where of course my best thinking is done), maybe I put too much on the line. I’ve been feeling way too stressed out by this whole thing, so maybe I should take it all out and just sit back for a little bit. Maybe it wasn’t worth the money I was pouring in to it.
But I know I would miss it. And I know I would crave it. My retirement accounts aren’t enough for me now. Or maybe I’ll look back on this post and wish I had quit. You know the last time I was thinking about this is when I took that huge twenty thousand dollar dive…and if I had jumped off then I would’ve never been where I am today.
So here’s the catch-22 to all of this: To do well at either (specifically the market now) you have to play without emotion. This is the problem. I am not an emotionless person. I start to think about those 20 or so odd days. All those days of waking up at
For less than what I lost today in the market.
And right there is where the emotion hits me. I just die inside. My soul dies. On another screen on my laptop with CNBC playing in the background as the market is skyrocketing upwards, the poker table is flashing. It’s my turn and I’ve got 9 2 off suit in the big blind. Check, check, fold. How much can I win playing this anyway? $100? What’s $100 to me right now?
I start to lose sense of reality. And I try to find things to ease the pain. Try to take solace in anything. I watch recordings of my favorite comedy shows. Play with my dog. Hug and kiss my wife a lot. But hardly any of it works. I can’t separate what I do on a daily basis like this and my leisure time. I should be able just to turn off at
But that’s unrealistic for me right now.
Today I burned on the couch. Slumped over. TV on. But I couldn’t hear it. During dinner I don’t really think I said a word. Everything was in a haze, and even writing this right now I’m considering not posting it because I can’t figure out exactly what I’m writing or where I’m trying to go.
I wanted to be the cold, heartless, greedy bastard who didn’t care for anything other than the bottom line. I thought I could train myself to be that way. Uncaring about anything else other than my return. On nights like these, it seems pointless to try.
With poker, I got to a point where I was finally comfortable. I can now play at limits where I don’t feel huge swings of emotion. But when I do play at those limits, I feel like I am wasting my time. What fun is it to not feel anything? Right now, in my head the little voice is screaming, “This is just like a drug addict…always searching for the next high…the higher highs”.
And it’s exactly right.
I am going to admit to myself right now…In the stock market I am playing way over my head. In Vegas with poker I usually play over my head. But with Vegas I can leave. And I only had as much cash as was in my bank account. The stock market can take my house if I don’t wake up and start playing properly again. Well, not really take my house but put me in to some proper debt for the next 15 years. Side prayer: Dear Lord, please give me the knowledge to stop when I know I can’t lose any more.
So here I am. Scared, vulnerable and on the verge of an ulcer. I have a hard time getting to sleep, constantly thinking about moves for tomorrow and betting on earnings announcements and interest rate movements. I honestly think that there are a few select people out there who are fearless in these situations. They wake up every day in worse situations than me with more on the line and they come through without a scratch. I’d like to meet some of those people. Ask them where they got their guts.
Because right now I’m in need of some.
Or maybe those are the folks that got eaten up today. The guys who are picking up the second job as a night janitor because they took their shot and missed. I will do everything necessary to not end up like them.
Tomorrow’s another day. And at
*deep breath*
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