Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Millionaire Daydreaming (Part 2)

So making the money is maybe half the fun.

The other half is deciding how to use it.

When you hear about people winning the lotto or a large sum of money, you usually hear about the things they buy immediately afterward.

I have also heard of the depression or suicide that may even come after a large windfall like that. This usually results from poor money management. Those who didn't know what to do with their money before they won the lotto usually aren't going to know what to do with the money after they win.

But they mostly do what they would think people who had just won the lotto do: Spend. Keep spending. New million dollar-plus house in a nice neighborhood chalked full of all the most expensive furniture, cookware, electronics. New cars. A boat maybe. Jewelry. Brand new wardrobe.

And by the time they look up, they've got all the best stuff, but now most of the money is gone - and maybe the emptiness inside arises from them not feeling like they deserved any of this. And of course they've quit their jobs because what was the point in making a mere fraction of what they had just won?

Well, this would never happen to me.

Mainly because I don't buy lotto tickets. But assuming I had made that ridiculous overnight win of over $1.4 million in a Goldman Sachs option, here's what I would do:

-Wake up the next morning and check my "Total equity" statement. Check my "Day trader buying power" which allows me a 4:1 ability on the funds in the account. Be amazed by both of the numbers.

-Immediately withdraw $1.2 million of it leaving the account with $250K to trade with. The ideal amount I've always wanted. Enough to keep my standard of living currently for a few years without going broke (in the market).

-Of that $1.2 million I would take $400K of it and put it in a 6 month CD yielding 4%. I would do this for tax purposes. By putting the money in a CD it would guarantee that I didn't touch that money until at least March of 2009, when I could take it out and make sure it went to the IRS. Thanks a lot for almost nothing in return by the way.

-The next thing I would do is handle my loans. We currently hold 4 loans in order of size: Our main 30 year fixed mortgage on our primary residence. A 5/1 ARM on our rental property. Our HELOC. And finally our car loan.

-Of the $800K I would take $100K to pay off our HELOC. This would allow me to refinance our primary residence mortgage. I would take another $150K to apply to our 30 year fixed mortgage and refinance it to a 15 year fixed. This would provide us not only with a lower monthly payment on our house, but it would also insure that with at least one of us working that we could afford the mortgage. We could also get the mortgage paid off sooner with a shorter loan time frame. I understand that paying down your mortgage isn't the smartest thing to do with your money, but given the times we're in right now I want to be safe.

-I would take another $50K and apply it toward our rental property's mortgage. I would also refinance that property in to a 15 year fixed loan. This would make for a much smaller monthly mortgage payment than we are paying now. We could then drop the rent on any future renters (or even our current ones assuming they stay after their year lease is up) and as long as we kept tenants we could make a nice profit over the next 15 years - even assuming we didn't sell at the end of 15 years.

Still keeping up? We're down to $500K now. Money goes fast when you're spending it.

-I'd take care of the cars. My dad always talks about getting his BMW 540. Well the 540 is no more, but we can get him a brand new 535. Out the door we're looking at around $65K full loaded. I imagine driving it home to him one day, red bow on top and all. Personally I've always dreamed of driving an Audi S4. It has been my dream car for the past 8 years. But then again I've never test driven one before - don't want to tempt myself because I can afford one - I just couldn't afford any gas for it or the insurance. But now that I've got cash available, why not? Out the door I'm looking at another $55K.

-Since I got the car, and the wife already had a nice car previously, we're going to keep her car. But of course we're going to have to spend a good chunk on her too. Only fair right? I'd allot up to $50K to her, but I'm sure she'd even have a hard time spending it. Or maybe not. You never know until you put someone in that sort of situation. I'm sure she'd get all the upgrades she wanted on the house. That is if I was able to talk her in to not getting a new house entirely. Notice how I was happy paying off the house we currently own? And not taking $300K of this money and putting it down on a million dollar home near the water? Yeah, that would be her blog post of how to spend a million dollars...not mine. Anyway, I'm sure she'd get the hard woods in most of the house (which is mostly carpet), upgrade the kitchen (our microwave sucks) and probably find more furniture. Also, she'd be free to spend at all the designer places that charge way too much for everything - without any guilt. Don't even get me started on the possibility of jewelry...

-Of course I can't forget my mom(s). Plural now. We'd have to find something nice for both of our sets of parents. They're all pretty frugal so I'm assuming they'd be happy with spending about $25K for each of the sets of parents. We could probably do a nice big family cruise with all of us.

-Split up another $100K to siblings. $50K to my sister and $25K each to the wife's brothers. I'd like to see the money spent properly though. Almost like mine - sure take a little off the top for a little fun, but save or invest the rest.

$180K to go now. We're almost there...all of this spending is getting tiring. But I definitely would not mind having to make these decisions.

-I would of course throw a huge party for all of my friends. Take them all out. But I don't have hundreds of friends. So at the most I think we could ever spend for a ridiculous party would be maybe $5-$10K. What I really want to do for them though is I want them to share the same love for money making that I had. I want them to hit it big like I had. Or at the least give it a shot. So for 4 of my friends - whoever wanted to, I would give them the ability to trade my money. I'd dole out $30K to 4 different people. Allow them to lose 20% ($6K) on me - which would drop them under the day trading requirement amount anyway. Once (if) they lost that $6K they could give the money back to me, no hard feelings. Anything they made though would be there's to keep, but once they had doubled their money, I'd like my initial start up capital back. If they never doubled it, no big deal. Just having them trading with me would be a lot of fun - having the ability to bounce ideas off one another, making a mini-competition of it, hopefully all becoming wealthy together. That is another place where lotto winners go wrong. They give out the money to friends and just like the lotto winners, those friends blow that money and come back looking for more. I want my friends to make money off of the money that I give to them.

-With the last portion of the money I would max out a 529 account for none other than myself. In the near future I'll be getting my MBA, and of course that's going to cost a good chunk of money. Why get my MBA when I had made so much money? Almost a million and a half dollars is a nice chunk of change for a guy in his mid-20s, but it's definitely not enough to retire comfortably for the rest of my life (obviously given what I would do with the money). In fact, although I might call in sick for a couple days after making that trade to celebrate, I'd still willingly go back in to work afterward. Nope, unfortunately to retire comfortably right now I'd need $5 million. It's never enough is it? Well maybe someday it will be.

After reading through this you might be thinking that I didn't do anything fun with the money. You're exactly right. That's where previous big money winners in the past have gone wrong.

But if I were to do something completely different I'd consider starting my own hedge fund and be open to accepting OPM (Other People's Money). Or I could launch a set of Five Guys franchises in Washington. I could go out and pick up 3 or 4 foreclosed homes on the cheap and hopefully sell them in 5-10 years. There's obviously so many things I could do, but I like to live like my parents - allergic to payments, intolerable of debt.

At the least though, it's nice to dream.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Millionaire Daydreaming (Part 1)

A lot of people say, "If I just won the lotto - it'd be so nice".

And they like to daydream about what they would do with all the money they won.

How they'd quit their job, buy their dream car - the works.

I have the same dreams, but unlike the lotto ticket winners I see the big money in the market. Every once in a while I'll see trades where I say to myself, "Wow, if I had put in a few thousand dollars in to this trade I would've made a lot of money." Of course that is all backwards looking - which is the beauty of it all. It keeps me daydreaming.

Recently I saw one of the largest pops I've ever seen from a trade. But I'm going to be as realistic about it as possible. In my wildest dreams the amount of money I could have made from this trade is roughly $4.4 million before taxes.

But I've only caught the bottom and top in a trade a few times. And never at that magnitude.

I was having problems posting to the blog and since this is something easy for me to write I decided to go with it.

Last week was one of the most volatile weeks I've seen in the market since I've been following it. Financials were getting crushed. Goldman Sachs (the company that this trade is on) had fallen from an average price around $140 a share to around $100. On Wednesday, September 16th I mentioned to my friends that I couldn't believe that GS had fallen below $100. It was a great buy then. I don't know what the options movement would've done but someone could've made a quick chunk of cash as GS closed easily above $100 on that day.

Thursday was worse. Down, down, down it went.

The low it hit on Wednesday was $97. So I would've gotten in around $95 on the $100 call option. I usually wait until a stock breaks below a previous low to jump in. I think a lot of people do this - they wait to see an imaginary support line broken before they make their move. And I would have, putting in about $2500 in to the $100 call option at $1.25. 20 contracts.

And yet the stock continued to slide. Over the next 50 minutes GS went from $100 to $86. My option went from $1.25 to a low of $.40. The way I buy options though is I like to average in when I'm losing. And I average in by doubling my positions at lower costs. For some reason I like to double my option postion after I've lost 20% on it. The option would've blown through my $1.00 limit order and left me cringing down $500 on the trade and 40 contracts deep.

And once I get that deep I like to reach for whole numbers in contract size. Chalk it up to my OCD. I know it's weird but it just looks better to me. The contract then moved through my "half point" at $.70 and I'd pick up 60 more contracts now to give me a whole number of contracts at 100 and down $1700 on the trade. At a contract price this small I sometimes continue to double because it's not much further from $.70 to $0.00.

So throw on another double of my contracts to bring the total to 200 at $.55 and then another 200 contracts when I can't believe my bid gets hit at $.45 and the bids go as low as $.40. At this point I cannot believe I am in this deep. I am sweating in my chair not focusing on anything else other than the tick movements on the stock, miniscule moves of $.13 up and down and whispering profanities under my breath. I just sent the wife an email telling her that I am losing my ass and I am looking for guidance.

The world has gone numb to me and everything just is just a bit more muted. I am now in to the $100 GS call GSIT for 400 contracts at an average price of $.72 a share. In the option now for a total of $28,700 and down $8,800 on the trade. I've got my finger on the sell trigger ready to get rid of 100 contracts at $.35. Just hid that bid and I'll get out.

And suddenly everything starts to turn.

Goldman starts to lunge upwards...Suddenly we've blown through $90...then $94...$96...oh it seems to be cresting a bit.

I've hit the "positions" button to check my option again. In a span of 20 minutes the option's tripled from $.40 to almost my original buying price of $1.20. Wow. I'm up almost $20K on my 400 options. Got to get out...have to reduce exposure. But I'll wait. I'll wait for at least a double before I let some go.

I check back to my watch list and GS is at $98.

I can't believe this. I rode it all the way in to the bottom and stuck it out. I want out of 50 contracts. Maybe 100. Maybe I'll wait until I'm in the money. Yes, I'll do that. Get me out of 50 contracts when I'm in the money.

And there it went. It moved so quickly upwards that I ended up selling 50 contracts at the market for $2.65 a contract when GS flew through $100 up to $101.38. Sold for a profit of

There I was. Shocked at what I was doing. Just locked in profits of $9600 before taxes and still had another 350 contracts profiting me another $65K.

And yet the stock continued to rise. $105...

And closed at $108.

The option closed at $8.90. I had 350 contracts that had gone from being worth $25,200 to now being worth $311,500. I couldn't sell. I didn't know what to do with myself going in to the close. It moved so quickly from $30K to $100K that I was stunned. I kept hitting the preview order button and the option wasn't keeping up with the underlying price...the ask kept going higher.

I couldn't focus on work. I wanted to run and scream about what I had done. The dog didn't understand so I had to wait until the wife got home so I could show her. I told her I had a surprise for her and she didn't understand when I was pulling out the laptop and signing in to Zecco. I couldn't even mask my excitement.

So we went out for dinner. We dressed up and went to the nicest Seafood place in town - Hank's. Or at least that's what we had been told. We both got market priced dishes and felt pretty ridiculous knowing that on paper I had just made $300K dollars. Enough to live off for a long time. We didn't talk about anything else but that and when I got home on a full stomach and almost a full bottle of wine I still couldn't sleep.

Of course, given the weeks movements in the market I was definitely worried about what was going to happen Friday morning. But at the least I knew I could pull out of this making at least $80K. I hoped.

I finally got to bed around 1:30 AM that night, but I still tossed and turned. I don't remember what time I ended up falling asleep but I remember thinking I'd like to pull out all the money in one dollar bills just to feel that enormity of cash in my hands. It seems silly, but for a kid who's never seen that much money before - you've got to understand.

The next morning the first thing I did was to turn the TV on to CNBC like I normally did. The wife ended up working from home since we had a late night the night before - and she wanted to see what happened with the money this morning too.

I screamed.

"Honey!"

"What?"

"You're not going to believe this."

"Oh jeez...what?"

I dropped the remote. My jaw dropped with it.

On CNBC they had announced that this morning the SEC had come out and announced a ban on short selling of almost 800 different securities. A majority of them financial. And one of them was mine. I watched GS scroll by on the ticker at the bottom of the screen. GS 300@$139.40 +31.40.

Someone just short covered my stock up to almost $140. I could not believe it. An overnight move of more than 30%. How did what happened yesterday get that much better? How is this possible?

I signed in to Zecco to make sure I still had the 350 contracts and it wasn't some mistake or I hadn't sold all of the contracts with the first 50. No. They were still there...and still worth $311K. Seeing that much green next to the +1236.11% number made my cheeks hurt from smiling so much.

And still the opening bell was 2 and a half hours away. The market was going wild, up over 400 points and it seemed like shorts couldn't cover fast enough.

"Want to go out for breakfast?" I asked my wife. So we ended up as one of the first couples to arrive at one of our favorite breakfast spots - Seabiscuit, a small family run place about a quarter mile from the atlantic.

After an excellent breakfast we went to walk on the beach because I still had time before work - and before the market opened. We didn't say much. Just held hands and walked through the waves that washed up on the beach.

On the way home we talked about what we would do (more on this in part 2). As soon as we arrived I was signing in to Zecco - about 20 minutes early. And I watched as all the financials were popping. Everything across the board that had been beaten down were now part of a short covering rally. Overnight from trough to peak GS had moved over 60% and my option was going to move at least another 4000%.

In the background the TV was blaring CNBC. Every day I have it on - mainly just for the noise - but this time around I had the volume turned up - making sure to catch the opening bell. Then I heard the countdown...and the bell rung.

Usually options take 3-5 minutes to get trading. Sometimes after big news the option markets open up immediately. Given what had happened overnight as soon as that bell rang and I hit the "positions" button my option changed. I had a plan for selling. I wanted to get most out right away. GS had opened up at $142 so I knew my option had to be worth at least $40. I typed in my limit order to sell 200 contracts at $40, I placed the order and it immediately filled at $43.50. An overnight profit of over $850K on those 200 contracts.

150 contracts left and I knew I wanted to get out at a lowest $35. I watched GS top near $145 and immediately start coming down. The rush of people wanting to get out at that price was huge. And suddenly we broke $140. And that's when I knew I had to get more out. I hit a market order for another 100 contracts. Executed at $39. A profit of over $380K on those 100 contracts.

Already GS had fallen off it's highs and continued to tumble. We were through the major move in GS for the morning. It was 10 AM and I was sitting there thinking about what my purchasing power would look like tomorrow morning. Over 2 million dollars in buying power would look ridiculous to me. I kept saying that to myself again and again to hopefully make this try and sink in. Not that I needed to. I'm sure as soon as the euphoria wore off the reality of having made that much money would sink in.

I sat back, and set a stop limit (which I hate because they only work for me about 30% of the time) at $35 for my last 50 contracts. Then I immediately canceled it when the option easily "jumped" my price down to $34. Get out get out get out I was saying in my head as I was typing in the option name and hitting preview order for a market order...crap, $33.50 now bid..."send order" - executed at $33.20.

And that was it. It was all gone. I no longer had any dollar signs or green percentages on my screen. Just a blank slate staring back at me almost mocking me in a way that said, "Nothing really just happened here."

But it did.

I started the morning making a little over $9,500 from the night before on my sale of 50 contracts.

For the rest of the 350 I sold for profits of $850K on 200 contracts, $380K on the next 100 and on my last 50 contracts a profit of $160K. All in total a smidgen over $1.4 million dollars. Overnight I had become a millionaire.

I wondered to myself if many of the "successful" traders had gotten their start this way. How many of them had had one HUGE day and then had the confidence to just trade with that money from there on.

I had so many plans...so many things I wanted to do with the new found windfall. I'll be sure to map them all out for you in Part 2.

(Author's note: This post was not proofread. Therefore, if I've switched tenses or points of view or made any sort of error, I apologize.)

Monday, September 08, 2008

No posts for September

I've got the posts lined up.

I promise I'll put them up - there will be at least 3 for September. Blogger gives us the ability now to post in to any time we'd like to so people with a minor case of OCD like myself can have their posts spread properly throughout time.

And this will kind of be a throw away post.

But I wanted to mention something that's always bothered me about this blog.

Around 6th grade or so I started to keep journals. I wanted to let my thoughts out - because I had a lot of them. I don't think I thought more things than the average kid did - It just felt better to have them down on paper.

And they're still sitting in a drawer somewhere in my parent's house. Waiting to be read again. I picked up one from junior high a couple years ago and remember the girls I wrote about and all those awkward moments in the hallways. I wrote in those journals up until I started this blog. Every night I tried to write at least a page. Handwritten. And unlike this blog, I typically had something to fill that page with. And it was because I was free.

The whole "self-censored" aspect of this blog was kind of a dig against online public blogging. Specifically blogging about your own life, or things that you experience. Because no matter how private I made this blog someone out there had the chance of reading what I wrote. Heck, I even removed my last name from the posts because I didn't like the idea of my blog posts appearing when doing Google searches for my name. I even dropped the wife's name and only refer to her as "wife" now in my later posts. If people knew about me or were close to me they can definitely feel free to read my blog (I would hope everyone feels this way). I partially write to keep them up to date with my life or provide them some reading material. But even for them I censor what I write. I have never been 100% open with the words I put on here.

And that is bothersome.

Because there are those deep, dark thoughts that I think all of us have. And the last time I let any of those out was with a pen on a college ruled 3 hole punched piece of paper. In a way it's kind of sad - but it has to be done in order to keep just that - order.

And if you're reading this and thinking that I've got some big secret to hide, I don't. It's just the stupid thoughts that we all have about anything, that if we ever said out loud (as I tend to do more so than others IMO) we would be looked down upon. Or judged. Vehemently disagreed with or even shunned. Or maybe you don't think like I do. How can I know? I'm not in your head.

It's just like any normal conversation we have. Do you say any thought that pops in your head to the person or people you are speaking with? No. You filter out your thoughts and (hopefully) find the most appropriate things to say to keep your environment in that safe zone and as sanitary as possible. That quiet ignorance of other's true thoughts and feelings that we all enjoy.

So this is the post where I want to be able to write anything. But I don't. And so it goes in all my posts on this blog.

Maybe this should've been post #1? I think I touched on it a little bit in that post too.

This post has got me thinking now though (shocking and/or ironic) about what life would be like if we played with our cards facing up. What would happen if everyone knew exactly what other people were thinking at any time. How would our relationships change? How would the world change?

I'll end with this: For those that are reading this, take some time to think about how much censorship you are placing on yourself and what your motives are for doing so. Seems like the perfect mind fuck to me.