Monday, November 30, 2009

Most Unrelaxing Thanksgiving Weekend Ever

The In Law Grandma.

Imagine George Costanza’s mom. That’s what she sounds like. Nasally – scratchy voice. She’s 80 years old and doesn’t give an EFF about anyone but herself. Quick with the tongue, and just tries to get in to shouting matches with people – again because she doesn’t give an eff. And if it’s silent? She has to talk. She has to say something and most of the time it’s complaining. She’s super hypocritical and thinks her opinion is the bible. God forbid you disagree with anything she says. And if you actually start talking with her? She has to OVERTALK you and her voice gets louder the more you talk.

Examples of her terribleness which made my weekend hell:

-She walks through the door, first thing – “I’m thirsty. Can I have some water?” “Yes.” “Where are your cups.” “In the cupboard.” “Is it OK if I use one of these glasses?” “Yes.” “Are you sure?” “Yes.” “Ok, do you drink out of the tap here? I don’t like to drink tap water.” “No, we have a Pur in the fridge” “Oh, well I have a Brita at home, I think it tastes better. You guys should buy a brita instead.” *starts to grab our pur water* “Ohhh jeez, this thing is heavy! I don’t think my Brita is this heavy. I think the shape of my brita makes it less awkward to lift – for us old ladies and all.”

That’s just a glass of water.

-My guest bathroom. We told her not to lock the hallway bathroom door so we could go to the bathroom in the middle of the night. She locked it on her first night here. I had to hold my p33 from 3 am to 5:30 am when she finally woke up and I could get in through her bedroom.

-Since there were 5 of us, we could all fit in one car. Not once did she offer the front seat to either me or the wife's mom (the 2 biggest people out of the 5 of us). So I was always crunched in the back seat with one of us sitting yatch. She “deserves” to ride in the front seat from all those years of being an awesome mom/grandma. *rolls eyes*

-She didn’t pay for ONE meal. The wife and I and her parents split them. She didn’t pay for ONE tank of gas. The wife's parents FLEW to tampa to pick her up because flying is “Such a pain” for her. We gave her a Christmas present (glitter painting of her dog) because we knew we wouldn’t be seeing her over Christmas. She gave us nothing.

-We went to the beach after our good thanksgiving meal (it was 72 degrees and sunny here). When we got there she immediately started complaining because the wind was making her cold and she wouldn’t even leave the car (after stepping out and feeling the STANDARD coastal breeze). We had asked her if she was sure she had wanted to go to the beach before we left.

-After climbing the stairs to our apt once she sat down in a huff (super out of shape) and said, “Phew! If I walked like that everyday (from the garage to our apt) I would feel 100% better! (Captain obvious statements like this all weekend)

-When she ran out of things to complain about, she’d start complaining about restaurants she – NONE of us have ever been to. “Look at that place over there (we’re walking downtown) I bet that place has 100 things on the menu and they’re all CRAP. I mean, how does a place like that stay in business? Why does the community support them?” Me: Well you don’t have to eat there if you don’t want to. “I won’t!”

-We took her to the farmer’s market on Saturday morning. For the people that have gone, IMO it’s pretty cool. Good time. Get out, see the locals, try out some good food. Her: Do you like these sort of things? Me: Yeah, I think it’s fun. Her: It’s just so much work though. Me: Really? Her: Yes, I used to work one of these down in Florida twice a year. Me: Wow. Must’ve been tough. Her: It was a thankless job for a stupid art community.

Destroyer of fun.

-5:30 am on my first day off (thanksgiving morning): We’re sleeping out on the floor. She comes out and turns on the BRIGHT kitchen light, still sees us sleeping and says, “OOOPPPS” really loud (IMO trying to wake us up) and then proceeds to ground her coffee beans. Later that morning, “Did I wake you guys up? Cause I didn’t mean to wake you guys up. I was just going nutty in that room on my own without my coffee!”

I think I've had enough for the next couple of years. Hope to see you in 2011 grandma.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

TBT

It's been a long time since I've given financial advice.

Probably because I've cut back my day trading to swing trading and am making such small plays that my heart isn't completely in it. Ever since the crash and rebound I've gone through some unsteady financial times myself (losing my job mainly) so I didn't feel like I had the ability to play big - really put some "dry powder" to work in something I believed in.

Also, believe it or not, there are people out there that actually read my blog for the finance/market aspect of it. They've told me personally. Shocker, I know.

Anyway, on to my idea.

TBT is the...well...I think if I explained it your eyes might start to gloss over. So you can gloss over the description here (from Google Finance/Reuters):
"ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (the Fund), formerly ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury, seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index (the Index). The Index includes all publicly issued, the United States Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than 20 years, are non-convertible, are denominated in United States dollars, are rated investment grade (at least Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service or BBB- by Standard & Poor's (S&P)), are fixed rate, and have more than $250 million par outstanding. The Index is weighted by the relative market value of all securities meeting the Index criteria. The Fund takes positions in securities and/or financial instruments that, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as –200% of the daily return of the Index. The Fund’s investment advisor is ProShare Advisors LLC."

You can learn more about it here.

In my words (and again, I by no means am a professional in this area), as yield prices on the 20 year bonds rise, prices go down. Therefore, a double short on the price of 20 year bonds will go up - in this situation, double.

So why would I buy this?

The market will demand higher rates in the coming months. Rates have been "historically low" for too long. Pretty soon with all of the printing of money from the stimulus inflation will be coming. Sure, inflation has been stagnant for now, but once the economy starts to turn a little (and it already is - how far we turn is an entirely different post) we're going to start tightening rates again.

The Fed can give us as much lip service as they want to keep this government-stimulated rally alive - but as standard - actions speak louder. Bernanke has told us that rates won't rise until "sometime next year". For those of that haven't noticed, "next year" is less than 40 days away. Kind of scary, I know.

As long the market doesn't crash again in to a double dip recession, and we avoid all other disasters (major earthquake/fires/floods/terrorist attacks) I can see the economy stabilizing slowly - and the rates starting to make a come back.

Meaning TBT only has one place to go from here - up. I've waited on this for a few months - I got others in to it at $43. But I finally pulled the trigger yesterday and bought some March $47 calls for under $2/contract. Now I'll just continue to build my position between now and early February and watch the money roll in.

Price target for TBT: $58 (35% return if you buy the ETF at $45, I'm looking for roughly 600% return on my option).
Target Date: 2/18/2010
Price release point: $39 (-15% for the ETF, date dependent percentage loss on the option).

For those of you that have questions on this play, please let me know. I love to talk money with those as interested in making it as I am.

Friday, November 20, 2009

The Writing On The Wall

My 200th post! Wow.

That's a lot of boring stuff to read.

And assuming my OCDness of having 4 posts per month, that means I've been writing for probably close to 50 months.

Weird.

That can't be right.

Today was a ground breaking ceremony for the company I am currently working for. It's a big deal down here in South Carolina, where the unemployment rate is still going up and is currently I believe at 12.8%.

Because it means one thing: Jobs. A way to pay for a family - to buy a house, buy food, enjoy life. A means.

But since this company chose South Carolina - specifically North Charleston as their new home for this new warehouse, that means they didn't chose my old home.

Sure, it was all in the making.

I could see the writing on the wall.

The business climate is just not good where I'm from.

The traffic is terrible. The government can't get anything done. Taxes are high and really you don't get much out of it. But the talent pool is strong - which then again means that the average wage is going to be higher.

So, all I can see there are CONS.

If there is one thing I've learned from trading the market it's always to look at trends. Look ahead. Get in before the crowd and get out before the crowd.

So here's the trend: Will Everett - a place that is 10 miles from my "home" become the next Detroit?

It started slowly. Detroit scoffed at the idea of people in Tennessee building cars.

But look at the auto manufacturers now. They go where it's cheap. They leave unions in the dust to rot. And in turn, entire communities, supporting businesses and home prices.

Being down here I can see this economy turning around. Companies will flock now that they've seen someone take the lead. I feel like I could have a guaranteed job for possibly even 20 years. And if I continued working like I am right now (more on that in another post) - I could be well ahead of my early retirement goal.

And all I can see up north is a great exodus. And because our families are anchored there, we'll be left holding the bag.

Sure, it's a bit chicken little of me to be saying all of this, but I'll be kicking myself 5-10 years down the road if what I predict comes true.

I just can't see it working out for the Tacoma to Everett area. Where I can see excitement, an eagerness to work and a new energy down here.

I don't know if I'm even able to make big decisions like that or not...

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Scared

Tonight

Laying in bed

The wife said to me,

"You know, a year from now, you might be taking care of our 1 month old baby."

It was the most scared I've been in years.

Moving on to the next step is coming a lot sooner than I thought it was. And it's not that I didn't know it was coming. It's kind of like it's never felt that real to me.

Many days I look at myself and still see the teenager looking back in the mirror.

So there's a lot of personal growth that's going to be done, and a lot of new responsibility.

But what I continue to hear from every new parent out there (since we're of that age now): The good far outweighs the bad. Even my neighbor's son who is a little over 2 years old now - even though he was taught to say, "I love you (name)." When he says that to us, nothing can be wrong in the world.

And when I look back on my life and how awesome it has been - a smidge (not actually a word - boo) over a quarter of it, why not bring someone else in to enjoy the fun - someone we can mold in our own image and someone that can hopefully do better than us. Make us proud, give us hope and love. Always a future to look forward to.