Tuesday, August 05, 2008

"Largest Up Move in 4 Months Time"

Warning: This post will be about the market.

If you find that boring, or don't want to read about it, or have no idea about some of the things I'm talking about then I'd recommend going for a run. I heard the weather's supposed to be nice wherever you are.

Today the Dow was up over 330 points, the S&P was up almost 30 points. Almost all of the US indices rallied 3%. It was a huge day.

And I did nothing but lose money. Almost $2K to be exact.

Now that doesn't seem like much, and I've definitely had a lot bigger losing days in the past, but it's capped off a pretty bad week for me where I've lost a nice chunk of change swinging from profitability this year to negativity.

And the emotion from losing can snowball sometimes. Especially because after the market closed I imagined my dad calling me about it (because he knows I follow the market pretty closely). My mom actually did end up calling this afternoon, but she didn't mention anything about the market.

Here was my imaginary phone conversation with my dad:

Dad: Hey boy!

Me: Sup

Dad: You see that market today?

Me: Yeah

Dad: Well? Did you make any money?

Me: No, I actually lost $2K

Dad: What? How?

Me: You wouldn't understand...

Dad: Ayyyeee...well you'll get it back

Me: I hope so


The shift was slow in coming. And I'm not really sure if the "shift" has completely taken place yet. It was the rotation out of commodities and back in to other things. Tech. Financials. Retail. Anything that had been beaten down with the rest of the market. And it was time to beat up the things that hadn't. So while the market was rallying my favorite stock of the past 6 months - Potash - was falling off a cliff once again after a big down move yesterday.

And there I was, catching the falling knife the entire time. Just 2 weeks ago, and for months before that, I was catching the falling knife on it, never knowing if it would break it's trend line. Luckily for me it never did. But as I sit here right now, the thing is broken. I had to get out. I had to take what I could.

Tomorrow I'm going to start over and try my best to rebuild. I've faced a similar situation to this a couple months ago. And I rebuilt it all only to see it disappear again.

So writing this out is almost acting like a bit of therapy for me. Stan from SB used to tell me that there are opportunities everyday. It's just a matter of finding them. And I also have to remember that it's a marathon. Not a sprint.

I just want to be rich yesterday. I want to have cash to burn because I've never been in that situation before. And I know that investing my money is one way to get to that point.

So I'm going to keep my head up, look back on this week as the point where I completely missed the sector rotation and got burned for it, and hopefully be more aware in the future so I can catch the next wave.

Back to work tomorrow.

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